Tokyo-Based Microbiologists Model Anti-Spike IgG and Neutralizing Antibody Waning Post COVID-19 Immunization

Michinori Kohara and colleagues at Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Science’s Department of Microbiology and Cell Biology acknowledge while efficacy of COVID-19 mRNA vaccines was demonstrated (although the durability challenge remains an elephant in the room), “several unknowns remains.” Published in the journal Vaccines, the authors ponder the effectiveness and variability of vaccines longer term as the number of boosters increases. What is the duration of vaccine efficacy with accumulating boosters? This question forms the basis of this study, seeking to predict the duration of vaccine efficacy using a model of kinetics of antibody levels for each SARS-CoV-2 vaccination dose.  Incorporating predictive intervals to estimate the duration of vaccine efficacy plus to factor in variability among individuals, the authors assayed 3,059 serum samples from 1,346 participants were as part of the scientific investigation to quantify IgG antibodies specific for the S1 subunit of the S protein (anti-S1 IgG) and neutralizing antibody activities against SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19. Utilizing a power law model in a quest to simulate decay of antibody titers after vaccination, the team also developed models to assess antibody level kinetics post the second, third, fourth and even fifth jab.

The Study