Model Simulates COVID-19 Vaccine Impact:

A recent study published in JAMA assessed how effective the COVID-19 vaccines were in the US during the vaccine rollout across a portion of the pandemic (October1'2020- June 30'2021).

Researchers at Yale University's Center for Infectious Disease Modeling built a predictive model that included transmission dynamics of the original strain and the Alpha, Gamma, and Delta variants along with parameters for age-specific risk factors. Data on administration of the 2-dose vaccines were taken from the CDC's COVID data tracker and incorporated in the model. Vaccine efficacy was derived from published literature on its ability to reduce infection, symptomatic disease, and severe disease. (see “supplements” for background on how they used data to derive parameters for their predictive model in the "supplements" section of the study.) For comparison, the model included 2 counterfactuals: a scenario with no vaccine and a scenario in which only half of the daily vaccination rate was achieved.

What did the model conclude?

According to the model, compared to a scenario in which there is not a vaccine, the vaccine campaign saved 240,797 lives and prevented 1,133,617 hospitalizations betw...

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