Large UK Observational Study: COVID-19 Vaccines Don’t Stop Transmission for Long—Rethinking the Vaccination to Herd Immunity Premise

Researchers from the University of Oxford, the United Kingdom government, and the private sector recently completed a study and uploaded the results to the preprint server medRxiv. Conducting a retrospective observational cohort study centering on adult contacts of SARS-CoV-2 infected adult index cases, this study included a total of 108,498 index cases and 95,716 persons infected with SARS-CoV-2. Leveraging data derived from the English contact testing system, the team led by corresponding author David W. Eyre from the University of Oxford’s Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, used multivariable Poisson regression in a bid to analyze associations between COVID-19 transmissions and index case and contact vaccination. They were particularly interested in better understanding the variability of this data based on Alpha and Delta variants. The results aren’t great for the mass vaccination premise. On one hand, sufficient data now is available that at least in the short run mass vaccination can help protect at least some people from more severe COVID-19 implications. COVID-19 vaccinated people transmit SARS-CoV-2 less than those that are unvaccinated only up ...

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