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I think the simpler question is what is the likelihood that COVID-19 escaped from a lab? You don’t need to include the question of deliberate human manipulation of the virus. The Chinese Communist Party is doing everything they can to suppress and hide any possible evidence the virus was released from the Wuhan Lab. They demanded approval of the people the WHO sent over to investigate. They greatly constrained the scope of the investigation, blocking the ability to investigate anything in the Wuhan labs. So no surprise that the official conclusion of this sham investigation is that there is no evidence for a lab release. It’s like saying that during World War II before the Allied invasion of Germany there was no evidence of massive Nazi extermination campaigns. Knowing the effort the CCP has taken to shield the Wuhan Lab, any person with common sense would have to conclude that that is the likely source.
Remember, this is the same CCP that put incredibly strict restrictions on travel within China to curb the spread of COVID-19 within China. But at the same time they deliberately promoted travel between the Wuhan region and the rest of the world, accusing anyone trying to restrict this travel as being racist or xenophobic. They wanted to spread this virus far and wide throughout the world. It is the first successful global biological warfare attack in the history of man. That is even more damning than an accidental release from the Wuhan lab.