- MemberNovember 3, 2021 at 5:46 pm
The Moderna and Pfizer BioNtech covid-19 vaccines were approved with efficacy of 94% and 91% respectively. This was the Relative Risk Reduction, or RRR. The approvals made no mention of the Absolute Risk Reduction (‘ARR’) of these treatments, which were 1.14% for Moderna and 0.88% for Pfizer BioNtech.
It is commonly understood – and confirmed numerous times on the CDC and FDA web sites – that ARR is the superior measurement of how effective treatments are against the disease which they are intended to address.
I generally respect the accuracy and impartiality of TrialSite reporting, but wonder why this aspect of the vaccines and forthcoming treatments is never mentioned.
For example, there have been numerous articles of the vaccines waning, with various figures bandied about. All of these stay the effectiveness in terms of the original RRR. So we might see it reported that Pfizer BioNtech efficacy has fallen to 60%. A commensurate (31%) reduction in the ARR would mean that the vaccine is only 0.63% effective. Isn’t it important to point this out when mainstream media will never do so?
Another example was the reporting of the efficacy of Molnupiravir, Mark’s forthcoming oral early treatment drug. This was also reported to have a high efficacy, again based on RRR. The ARR was (if I recall correctly) around 9.6%. Admittedly significantly better than the vaccines, but nowhere near as effective as we are led to believe.
I feel that the accuracy of TrialSite reporting would be considerably enhanced by pointing out when efficacy figures state the RRR of a treatment; and the addition of the ARR would make the reporting more complete. I sincerely hope that this is something that TrialSite editors will consider for future articles.
- MemberNovember 3, 2021 at 10:35 pm
There are other common mitigations with their stacked absolute risk reductions: masking, social distancing, hand washing, and avoiding mass gatherings. While doing all these mitigation the chance of contracting COVID in any 3 month measurement would have been low in any case.
- MemberNovember 4, 2021 at 2:19 pm
Your wish is my command. See my many articles on the COVID-19 vaccine ARRs in the Opinion Editorial section.
Dr. Ron Brown😎☀
- MemberNovember 4, 2021 at 7:01 pm
I have seen those Dr. Brown and thank you for them. I am hoping that articles posted by ‘TrialSite staff’ will similarly include ARR figures.
- MemberNovember 8, 2021 at 12:09 am
Dr. Ron Brown you have indeed written several articles on the ARR of the covid vaccines but I have wondered how this compares to the ARR of vaccines which have been considered to have been successful. I would love to see a chart comparing them all. That would certainly make the ARR of the covid vaccines more meaningful. Would that be a great research project for a thesis?
- MemberNovember 4, 2021 at 6:58 pm
Hello important feedback for TSN. Thanks Daniel
- MemberNovember 5, 2021 at 11:57 am
Researchers can get a better sense of absolute risk reduction of vaccines by doing a trial on people who visit bars regularly. I don’t know; maybe they do not dare to do such trials.
- MemberNovember 8, 2021 at 2:59 pm
I see from the latest TrialSite staff article about Regeneron that my hope that ARR numbers will be included will be a forlorn one.