Delta Variant Surge Hits the Unvaccinated, Poor & Ethnic Minorities Thus Far

Delta Variant Surge Hits the Unvaccinated, Poor & Ethnic Minorities Thus Far

Recent reports from mainstream press such as CNN showcase rises in COVID-19 cases with the overwhelming number of infected and hospitalized patients unvaccinated. Aya C. Elamroussi reports on findings that the Delta variant-driven COVID-19 surge now targets more healthy, young, and unvaccinated people. The press indicates that as compared to the first couple of waves in America where the elderly and highly at-risk populations—such as people with co-morbidities and ethnic minorities—now relatively younger populations, even as low as in the 30s to 40s, end up in the hospital. A review by TrialSite indicates that there is a clear correlation between states with the highest vaccination rates and fewer new Delta-drive COVID-19 cases, and those states with the lowest vaccination rates experience significant surges in daily cases. The overall death rates across the country have been on the wane, and it’s too early in this surge to determine if Delta is simply more transmissible or more deadly. A review in India found it not necessarily to be so but in Russia, perhaps more deadly. The overall COVID-19 death rates are still considerably higher in low-income, Black, and Latino (Hispanic) populations, at least in places like Los Angeles County. TrialSite predicts poor rural white communities will be unvaccinated and more vulnerable. Based on this survey, the unvaccinated face materially more risk for hospitalization and death than the vaccinated, especially if they fall into a lower socio-economic category. TrialSite remains steadfast that vaccination is a wise thing to do but those with particular risks should consult their physician. Vaccination anchors a comprehensive, holistic strategy to protect populations from COVID-19. Given 90% of cases are asymptomatic to mild-to-moderate cases, the health authorities should accelerate efforts to not only continue vaccination education but also authorize potential generic repurposed therapies where and when the data reveals efficacy and safety for such a pandemic. National Institute of Health clinical trials, such as those involving antivirals and prophylactic monoclonal antibodies (AstraZeneca) to the NIH-sponsored ACTIV-6 study and the COVID-OUT study led by the University of Minnesota, center now on ivermectin as a possible early-onset treatment.

Slowing Vaccination Rates

A mass vaccination program, which commenced at the start of the year, has slowed down to a near halt as so-called vaccine hesitancy makes it ever more challenging, although the U.S. White House is doubling down its efforts to fight what it calls misinformation targeting COVID-19. 

According to Our World in Data, 49% of the United States population have been fully vaccinated while 56.6% of the population has received at least one dose. With the White House’s recent announcement that it would step up campaigns against misinformation to reduce vaccine hesitancy, TrialSite reviewed some of the numbers and trends, and observes that the poor, ethnic and racial minorities, and definitely the unvaccinated, are bearing the brunt of what appears to be a building, Delta-driven surge. The U.S. has experienced three successive surges, the first one when the pandemic started back in March/April, a second larger one last summer and a much larger wave of illness starting in October and running through February. Since then, the number of cases has waned and that indeed has correlated with vaccination, undoubtedly natural immunity, and perhaps some of the population discovering other off-label options. But with an active July 4th, Americans were out in droves, hanging out in large groups at picnics and beaches, attending ball games, concerts, and the like. The CDC even suggested that those who were vaccinated could lose their masks. Could a fourth surge be growing? It’s too early to tell, but the pressure will be on to vaccinate as much of the remaining population as is practicable.

Some Observations

TrialSite summarizes some of the CNN bullet points:

  • In Louisiana, according to Gov. John Bel Edwards, since February, 97% of cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 there involved those not fully vaccinated. Note that 36.1% of this state’s population is fully vaccinated as of this writing based on the CDC.
  • CNN reports that in Arkansas, a state with one of the lowest rates of vaccination at 35.3%, reported on rising cases “filling up hospital beds.”
  • In Los Angeles County, CNN reports “cases surging” now leading to a reinstatement of “indoor mask requirements.”  California’s most populated county issued a press release reporting a four-fold increase in cases since July 4th.  And the number of those hospitalized in the county (462) has doubled since June.
  • Utah has a surge of cases with data evidencing very low numbers of young people vaccinated.

TrialSite looked at the top ten vaccinated states in the nation as the mainstream press has focused intensively on the lowest vaccinated ones. We include a breakdown of vaccination rates and COVID-19 trends:

Top 10 Vaccinated States

StateCOVID-19 VaccinationRateJune 1 cases 7-day avg.Latestcases 7-day avg.% + or –% white%minority
Vermont66.9%13130%94.2%5.8%
Massachusetts63.1%21928430%78.07%21.93%
Maine62.8%9826-73%94.31%5.69%
Connecticut62.3%9680-17%75.92%24.08%
Rhode Island60.5%4938-22%80.46%19.54%
Maryland57.8%191124-35%55.54%44.46%
New Hampshire57.6%4827-44%89%11%
New Jersey57%27335430%59%41%
Washington56.6%918617-33%69.3%30.7%
New Mexico56.2%10713425%36.8%63.2%

While a majority of the nation’s most vaccinated states (as measured by total percentage fully vaccinated) have seen declines in the new cases as measured by total 7-day average daily case counts, there are some notable trends.  Generally from June 1 to the present (July 17 or the last reporting date), there is an increase in COVID-19 infections across a few of the most heavily vaccinated states. In fact, some states such as Massachusetts and New Jersey have seen a 30% rise in 7-day daily average new case counts while New Mexico has seen a 25% increase. Something to note is that the heavily vaccinated states with overall declines share a common demographic—a high proportion white population (e.g. Anglo, Scotch, German, Irish-America, etc.) or put another way, low minority (African American, Hispanic, Asian) populations. There are exceptions to this, such as in New Jersey, Maryland, and New Mexico. In the aggregate, of all the top 10 vaccinated states, they have dropped an average of -14% in daily cases as measured by the 7-day daily new case average, according to NY Times data. Again, the three (3) states with considerable growth in COVID-19 cases in this group have sizable minority populations but TrialSite cannot declare this to be statistically significant. Overall, the top 10 vaccinated states are, in the aggregate, 73.2% white.

Top 10 Unvaccinated States

StateCOVID-19 VaccinationRateJune 1cases 7-day avg.Latest cases 7-day avg.% + or –% white%Minority
Alabama33.7%212560164%69.1%30.9%*
Mississippi33.8%121392224%59.1%41.9%*
Arkansas35.4%1341,017659%79%21%*
Wyoming36%718418%92.5%7.5%
Louisiana36.1%3171,198278%57.5%42.5%*
Idaho36.9%10914634%93%7%
Georgia37.5%439906106%51.8%48.2%*
Tennessee38.4%237551132%78.4%21.6%*
West VA38.8%10713425%93.8%6.2%
Oklahoma39.5%324541%74%26%
*large African American populations

Note the overwhelming surge in cases across the least vaccinated populations is based on the same duration of June 1, 2021 to the present day. On average, the least vaccinated states saw their 7-day daily average new case counts rise by 168%. A few states have had huge surges occur recently:

  • Arkansas 659%
  • Louisiana  278%
  • Mississippi  224%
  • Alabama 164%
  • Tennessee 132%

We note that these states have larger African American populations than the national average. Blacks make up about 13.4% of the total U.S. population. Note Arkansas is 15.2% African American while Louisiana is 32.8%; Mississippi has the largest percentage of African Americans in the nation at 38% while Alabama stands at 26.64% and Tennessee at 17.1%.  

It’s also apparent that the most unvaccinated states also maintain strong regional affiliation in that many of them are in the American South, although there are exceptions such as Wyoming and Idaho—both located in the Intermountain West region of the nation, although these two states don’t see large increases of new cases. Of note, of course, to CNN and the like is the fact that the least vaccinated states’ populations are majority Republican. This is most definitely the case. 

COVID-19 Death Trends

What about COVID-19 death trends? Media sources such as CNN suggest there are significant deaths associated with the latest surge. What do the numbers reveal?

According to New York Times, COVID-19 death data showed that on June 1 the 7-day average for new deaths came in at 601 new deaths across America. By June 15, a couple of weeks later, that number declined to 354 reported average new deaths for the 7-day period. By July 1, that figure dropped even lower to 256 deaths per day based on the running 7-day average. Fast forward to July 17, and the figure has inched back up to 272, more than likely due to surges in a handful of these states. Since June 1, overall death rates are down. Delta may be more transmissible, but it’s not clear if it’s more dangerous yet. Some data in India indicated it wasn’t but in Russia, TrialSite reported on the opposite trend.

What about Los Angeles County?

In the recent CNN report, Los Angeles County was featured as experiencing a growing surge. On June 1, the nation’s most populous county reported its 7-day daily average new case count at 725 new cases per day. That number declined to 172 by June 15 and 329 on July 1, 2021. The number has since jumped to 1,389 based on the 7-day daily new case average—a significant increase.

In Los Angeles County, CNN’s Cheri Mossberg reported on July 14 that the county’s health services director, Dr. Christina Ghaly, told the Board of Supervisors there that:

To date, we have not had a patient admitted to a [Department of Health Services] hospital who has been fully vaccinated, with either the J&J, Pfizer or Moderna vaccine. Every single patient that we’ve admitted for COVID is not yet fully vaccinated.”

Now Los Angeles County is heavily vaccinated with nearly 60% of the total population vaccinated. The surge has led to a new mask mandate, as reported by KTLA. By Sunday, July 18, there were over 525 people hospitalized across Los Angeles, with four (4) related deaths reported. But what the press isn’t informing the public is the social class and racial/ethnic dynamics associated with the surge. 

COVID-19 vaccination and mortality rates aren’t spread evenly across this sprawling 11+ million county, as ethnic minorities in poor eastern, southeastern and southern areas of the county are overwhelmingly hit the hardest. The mortality rate for Latinos is highest—nearly 3 times the rate of whites. Blacks are next, with nearly a rate two times that of whites. Poverty correlates with COVID-19 death in Los Angeles County. The homeless and those in dire poverty have the highest death rate, nearly four times the rate of the white population.

Some General Trends: Brown & Poor People More Vulnerable

While, of course, there are exceptions, the brunt of this latest surge represents the unvaccinated, often minorities (Latino or Black), homeless individuals of all backgrounds as well as those living in the poorest districts within the county.   

Generally, vaccination correlates with greater protection, but there are other factors driven by the social determinants of health. For example, in California as a whole, 29% of the vaccinations have gone to Latino (Hispanic) people yet they account for 63% of COVID-19 cases in the Golden State and 48% of all COVID-19-related deaths there—while they represent 40% of the total state population, reports the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF). Obviously, efforts to vaccinate Latinos in California lag considerably behind whites. Put another way, the POTUS outreach should be most intense in some of the poorest regions of the United States—that’s where the brunt of the worst problems are unfolding, whether that be the Deep South or in some rural areas of the Intermountain West.

Another example is Washington DC, where Black people represent 46% of the population and 43% of the vaccinations. Yet Blacks account for 56% of new recent cases and 71% of all deathsTrialSite suspects that COVID-19 deaths aren’t spread evenly across the African American population but concentrate in poorer Southeastern districts. As reported last month in New York Magazine, Blacks and Latino New Yorkers face higher risks from the Delta variant.

Generally, whites are vaccinated at higher rates, proportionally, than Blacks of Latinos.  But within minority communities, TrialSite suspects the vaccination rate is correlated to economic class. That is, the higher the household income, the higher the vaccination rate. 

COVID-19 case data is complex, and it appears that poverty and race/ethnicity are major factors as could be other socio-demographic dynamics in this emerging surge. It would appear Blacks and Latinos may face harsher consequences, particularly among the unvaccinated. But socio-economic levels are a factor, so poor whites may also have greater incidence of new cases. Generally, the Delta variant appears more contagious than previous strains but its potency is yet to be determined in America.

White Populations 

Generally, the other at-risk areas are unvaccinated whites in a handful of regions from the deep South and pockets in Appalachia and the Ozarks to parts of the Plains and Intermountain West states. As indicated by the KFF map, inland California also has substantial numbers of unvaccinated white populations. TrialSite proposes that perhaps the income gap among the vaccinated and unvaccinated may not be as severe as in major urban centers and in heavily vaccinated states but we haven’t studied this in detail yet. As TrialSite has shown, however, states like Wyoming and Idaho, while among the least vaccinated, have small populations and not as of yet significant growth in cases. Of course, that could change. 

Call to Action:  TrialSite recommends vaccination as a protective measure unless there are specific risk factors that need the attention of a physician. For those individuals that won’t accept a vaccine, they should not be discriminated against but rather offered continued education as well as access to the clinical research-as-a-care option, including expanded studies such as ACTIV-6 and COVID-OUT offering treatments for early-onset SARS-CoV-2 infections.  Government-funded programs to shame unvaccinated individuals may backfire. While some Washington DC playbooks may call for 70%+ to be fully vaccinated, health authorities should be flexible, open-minded, and entrepreneurial in their approach to aid populations if that target isn’t reached. The patient-physician relationship shouldn’t be intermediated by a state agency (federal, state, or local). Of course, post-vaccination data should be tracked in a transparent manner.

Responses

  1. What are the underlying conditions? Are they obese? Perfectly healthy? I believe in choice and if you chose not to get jabbed your choice as you bare all the risk. We never get all of the numbers just the fear porn.

  2. Holistic?
    Unvaccinated to be offered education?
    Quoting your source as CNN?
    TSN your BIAS is showing through LOUD and STRONG.
    This “puff piece” is just another marketing push by vaccine addicts.
    70% uptake creates a ROI in line with projected revenue requirements for pharmaceutical companies… and nothing more.
    Attorney Thom Renz is today’s hero of the people. I’ll be looking forward to seeing the date set for this trial, if indeed the judge sees merit in taking it on.

  3. This article on vaccinated cases: https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/more-than-5100-breakthrough-covid-cases-reported-in-mass-at-least-80-have-died/2435719/

    I love the spin – “this should not deter anyone…” of course, the alleged improvement in death rates is attributed to the vaccines, not to the waning severity of the Delta. The death rate they report is 1.54% and they say this is good. Is it? Who knows, as with all of the spinning of how deaths were recorded, the true death rate from C19 could be much lower. In Canada it is 2% – but within that figure, are the elderly who succumbed early on in long term care, including from neglect when the homes were understaffed. Depending on the age range of the above 80 deaths, the 1.54% could be high. No ages are reported in the article. Just food for thought.

  4. Wow this article came out of left field. Last night we watched a 2 hour interview with Dr. Peter McCullough and he was NOT in support of the mRNA or Adenovirus vaccines. In the past, this site has openly discussed the massive number of side effects and death from the ‘vaccines’ as well as the gross underestimation of said side effects and now they’re saying, ‘We’re steadfast in our recommendation of the vaccine.’ Have they been hacked, bought, let in on a secret? The level of cooperation among health authroities around the world makes it difficult to believe that this vaccine collusion is purely profit driven or sinister as there couldn’t possibly be that many sociopaths ‘up there’. The complete unwillingness to track symptoms and death from the vaccines and need to get EVERYONE vaccinated is so strange and without explanation that I find my mind going off into really strange places to explain this. Do they know something we don’t; some other huge threat that was/is the real reason they’re vaccinating everyone? Where the current pandemic was engineered to encourage vaccine uptake? Is this just a pattern of human behavior like the ability of the Nazi’s to have ordinary citizens don uniforms and kill millions of innocent people? To me this is so unreal that it’s like a scifi movie; an alien intervention where we are all being injected with alien DNA? I mean CRAZY yes but…. Injecting pregnant women, children, people with previous natural immunity…how else do you explain what’s going on? Bret Weinstein in his Darkhorse podcast suggested the plot was to eliminate a control group so any short or long term side effects would be impossible to prove as there’d be nothing to compare to but, would all of these well meaning health care workers and authorities be complicant in that?

    1. Agree – it seems that every week, another conspiracy “theory” becomes fact – e.g., the vaccine passport to access society mandates decreed in France and Greece.

      Dr. McCullough said the same about injecting pregnant women. Clinical trials do not exclude a group and then have docs recommend they get the treatment anyway.

      Then there is the whole system obscuring the data – nothing is as transparent as it should be. Health care workers do what they are told under threat of their jobs. Some are taking a stand, at great cost to themselves. If enough said, enough, it could stop. But herd behaviour doesn’t work that way, as you know, and there is a concerted effort to rearrange reality, resulting in day after day of propaganda and downright gaslighting. I pray that there will be an awakening. Perhaps the lawsuit filed Monday in regard to the injection deaths within three days, hidden from the public, will be what it takes to wake people up. The agencies that we believed provided the gold standard, are no longer what we thought they were, unfortunately.

  5. Another big factor not mentioned is which states are the majority of all the millions of illegal border crossers going to?
    They are bringing a lot of sick people and probably a high number are carrying the covid viruses.

    1. That is a very good observation – especially as they are reportedly being transported around the US. Are those the states where they are being heavily transported to?

  6. somewhat shocked and disappointed by the approach of this article and the mass vaccine recommendation. Immediately after reading this article i read this article illustrating 60% of hospitalizations in the UK are double vaxxed. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/60-people-being-admitted-uk-hospitals-had-two-covid-jabs-adviser-2021-07-19/?taid=60f5b1f4b881cc0001a15642&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

      1. Does that matter? That percentage may simply reflect the percentage of the population which is vaccinated, in which case vaccination useless. The crucial point is that this article repeats claims that ALL new hospitalizations are now unvaccinated.

  7. This is a disappointing one-sided article by Trialsite news. CNN & MSNBC have lost credibility, deal in selective one-sided reporting, censor of the truth about vaccines and injuries, and can no longer be trusted to present real facts. They “parrot” whatever Biden, the CDC, FDA, Fauci tell them to say. I hope Trialsite news will look at the results of cases reported in Israel, the UK and the other highly vaccinated countries to see what is really happening to vaccinated people in those countries. Those countries have the highest cases and the highest cases among the vaccinated. The CDC hides and lies about the actual number of cases in our country (break-through cases) by refusing to count, or test, sick vaccinated people unless they are hospitalized or die. What good is that – except to deceive – which, of course, is the actual purpose!

  8. A hodgepodge of historically untrustworthy information, misleading analysis, and flawed politicized “progressive” conclusions (blaming lack of mass vaccinations and racial “inequities“ justifying dangerous mass vaccination). This is a leftist Big Pharma Biden administration propaganda “tempest in a teapot”.

    Based on this, Trialsite is issuing a “CALL TO ACTION” for mass vaccinations, INCLUDING CHILDREN?

    Here is your CNN author, “Aya C. Elamroussi”, upon whose “reporting“ you rely:
    https://projects.voanews.com/new-voters/aya-elamroussi/

    This article relies on CNN, an outlandish dishonest propaganda “fake news“ organization, and on notoriously dishonest propagandist, NY Times.

    Important data is missing, and some apparently obtained from unreliable sources. “Cases“ or undefined and unexplained. Likely misleading “statistics” are headlined without context. “Percentage” increases flouted, for overall numbers which are insignificant.

    The CDC is entirely politicized, both in its reported information and its conclusions. It is an irresponsible unethical propagandist for child vaccinations, engaged in supporting coerced vaccinations, e.g. by universities, schools, government, etc.). It is a major participant in the Biden Administration’s advertised search for and purging of “misinformation“ in all social media private communications, and “canceling“ and censoring that free-speech.

    Aside from being unsourced, the datapoints are not properly comparable or correlated.

    Without any critical analysis, or understanding of any causation or correlation, (and admittedly relying on the “mainstream“ press) it claims that being “poor”, unvaccinated, “ethnic minority” (including “white/hispanic”, and black as ethnic) are causes of the alleged “wave” of hospitalizations and deaths. But the “national “seven day average for new deaths“ you report are minuscule.

    With the Biden Aministration threatening to track down and punish all sources of “misinformation“, perhaps Trialsitenews imagines this politicized article will “inoculate”it from totalitarian attack and censorship?

  9. The informed consent for medical procedures (which includes vaccination) is considered sacrosanct. The public deserves to get an honest informed consent and medical professionals have a moral and legal obligation to provide one. The patient has a right to choose after considering the risks, benefits and alternatives to getting this injection. All the potential risks are unknown at this time, the benefit of the injection (well, just refer to these injections available absolute risk reduction data), alternatives for prophylaxis and early treatment data is overwhelming. I will NOT consent to the jab.

  10. My personal experience is back in February 2020 local hospitals in my small town were blocking those with covid symptoms from the emergency room. I would have died had I not found a research paper online on Sars and Aids virus treatment using Ivermectin. I was blessed I had the pure oral medication in my freezer. Taking the Ivermectin by weight as prescribed made an astonishing difference in just 18 hours with all symptoms gone in 48. IMO Ivermectin doesn’t fight covid, it just stops the replication of any virus shedding.

  11. The State of California reports a seroprevalence of 85%, most of which comes from vaccination. This should exceed the herd immunity threshold. What is the County of Los Angeles calling a “case?” Is it a positive test result or a hospitalization?

    Officials are lying, possibly in an effort to get needles in the arms of children.

  12. Oh, a few more question to consider …

    For those unvaccinated folks who got infected, ended up hospitalized or died, were they properly treated at the very beginning when they were confirmed positive?

    What kind of treatments did they receive during their early stage (first 5-7 days of viral replication), cytokine storm period and later stage (showing more severe symptoms and ending up in the ICUs)?

    Have they been given an option to use medications right at the onset of the disease? Would their disease be treatable or their death be preventable if proper medications were given to them?

    In addition to their social structure, what is the age structure of this group of people? Do they have comorbidities?

    Before putting the blame on unvaccinated people as the cause of the reappearance of the pandemic, let’s gather more data and analysize them. Stigmatization won’t help vaccine hesitancy.

  13. Thank you for your article!

    Some questions to ponder …

    If unvaccinated folks (poor or rich) are given Ivermectin or other effective drugs such as Fluvoxamine, Hydroxychloroquine, etc. that can suppress covid-19 viral replication as soon as they feel ill (of use them as prophylaxis), do you think it would reduce the number of hospitalizations and even deaths?

    If all Americans (or the world) are educated about the various options of early at-home Covid treatments, do you think the current scenario would change?

    I wish the heath regulators would do studies to determine …

    The current “standard care” is: if you are “positive” but with mild or no symptoms, your doctor will send you home and ask you to call them or to go to the ER when your symptoms get worse or when your lips turn blue. Is this the right way to treat Covid patients?

    Given this virus is “dangerous” and highly contagious, why aren’t doctors allowed to treat their Covid patients EARLY with those pre-existing drugs mentioned above even though many meta-analyses have already been conducted to support the efficacy and safety use of these medications if right dosage is given at the right time?

    By the way, is more contagious equal to more lethal? Would love to see more data. Thank you.

  14. Two things; First, why are we conflating “cases” and deaths, ie “In Louisiana, according to Gov. John Bel Edwards, since February, 97% of cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 there involved those not fully vaccinated.” Secondly, it is well known that the CDC has advised against reporting and testing “cases” in the fully vaccinated, so OF COURSE, most of the cases are going to be in the unvaccinated. I am surprised that Trial Site News published this stat without any consideration of these two things. Hmm, maybe they are not as objective as I thought.

    1. Greyhound nailed it: Any discussion of “cases” being unvaccinated is tainted by the CDC removing the vaccinated from consideration as potential cases. Of course all the cases are unvaccinated–that’s the definition!

  15. Again, this must be done based on age groups!

    The age is the most import factor when it comes to risks associated with this virus.

    If you don’t account for age you are just spreading misinformations just like CNN.

    In the UK 50yo (or perhaps >65yo) age bracket, the above conclusions the make apply. But not so in the younger cohert!